Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 1.829840 1.931432 2.037625 2.157257 2.288700 2.429203 2.591388
2025-10-05 1.700911 1.845526 2.003748 2.191032 2.408424 2.655036 2.959208
2025-10-12 1.621165 1.792380 1.985717 2.222805 2.509422 2.849769 3.292518
2025-10-19 1.558932 1.749339 1.969841 2.248173 2.596331 3.026445 3.613394
2025-10-26 1.491502 1.693164 1.931384 2.239146 2.635050 3.140728 3.860121
2025-11-02 1.433384 1.643298 1.895525 2.228040 2.666550 3.243851 4.097699
2025-11-09 1.375023 1.589195 1.850186 2.200134 2.671502 3.308582 4.284075
2025-11-16 1.322393 1.539166 1.806602 2.170612 2.670324 3.362123 4.456319
2025-11-23 1.288026 1.510142 1.787711 2.171528 2.709230 3.473294 4.726214
2025-11-30 1.263455 1.492140 1.781614 2.188352 2.770170 3.619809 5.068171
2025-12-07 1.222736 1.451458 1.743622 2.158864 2.761869 3.660304 5.237239
2025-12-14 1.181103 1.408006 1.700051 2.119127 2.735528 3.669888 5.352339
2025-12-21 1.141996 1.367180 1.659223 2.082376 2.712934 3.685892 5.485499
2025-12-28 1.130095 1.361880 1.666064 2.113583 2.794407 3.875549 5.966192
2026-01-04 1.118612 1.356488 1.672207 2.143562 2.875299 4.071002 6.491205
2026-01-11 1.105812 1.348696 1.674441 2.167476 2.947662 4.258202 7.034229
2026-01-18 1.083223 1.326719 1.655798 2.158967 2.966705 4.352382 7.394087
2026-01-25 1.061313 1.304958 1.636587 2.148498 2.981477 4.439520 7.753901
2026-02-01 1.035658 1.277263 1.607939 2.122182 2.967941 4.472331 7.990918
2026-02-08 1.010814 1.250038 1.579106 2.094329 2.950064 4.495093 8.207585
2026-02-15 0.995782 1.236114 1.569016 2.095194 2.981264 4.615400 8.699246
2026-02-22 0.985854 1.229042 1.568575 2.111068 3.039299 4.794399 9.393806
2026-03-01 0.963915 1.204382 1.541511 2.083242 3.018057 4.809479 9.628725